MUMBAI:Markets had a stellar efficiency within the calendar 12 months 2023. Can they repeat their efficiency in 2024? Appears unlikely. Now we have quite a lot of imponderables, geo political information, uncertainty and naturally the final elections slated for April-Could 2024.

The 2 positives in a sea of worries is the truth that in comparison with international economies we’re much better off on most counts and therein lies the silver lining. Is that this silver lining ok for an additional rollicking 12 months?

Very clearly, no. Respectable 12 months with ups and downs and could also be higher than most international locations globally appear possible. However a terrific 12 months, impossible.

Let’s take a look at among the occasions unfolding. The Russia-Ukraine battle appears to have turn into by no means ending. One anticipated it to be quick and other people have been forecasting it to be somewhat greater than a skirmish. It is already 23 months previous and can full two years on February 24, 2022.

Even earlier than this might recover from, we’ve the Israel-Hamas battle which has turn into over 4 months previous. From the start of calendar 12 months 2024, we’ve the Houthi problem changing into large and prone to escalate. It is already concerned the USA, UK, Iran and Israel amongst different international locations.

How rather more and at what value is presently debatable. It has already affected commerce and delivery and there may be escalation of freight charges affecting delivery and sources availability. The place and when this might finish is unknown. It additionally has the potential to contain many extra international locations than the handful presently.

The US is experiencing rising inflation and elevated rates of interest and this occurred for essentially the most a part of 2023. But, their markets are additionally at lifetime highs. It’s believed that rates of interest within the present calendar 12 months would soften, however the concern of inflation nonetheless haunts them.

With battle presently on in three locations across the globe, gold is at its excessive and inflicting concern as together with gold, even crude oil is at elevated ranges.

India is relatively in a candy spot with a good diploma of self-production and consumption. The 2 objects the place we’re depending on imports are crude oil and edible oil. Whereas efforts are being made to step up manufacturing of each, it is solely work in progress presently and we’ve an extended technique to go.

Additional the nice half is that rates of interest appear to have peaked and although charge cuts could also be a while away, very clearly, we’re nowhere close to charge cuts within the rapid future. The most certainly risk is that rates of interest would stay at current ranges in the interim.

India is likely one of the few international locations that are witnessing an honest GDP development and we could possibly be within the high 5 per cent of worldwide economies so far as development is anxious.

Our rank is rising in international economies and we’ve overtaken Hong Kong just lately or within the newest spherical. Whereas this rise is nice and helps the nation’s picture and standing, we have to be sure that we’re capable of get stronger on all fronts.

Elections for the Lok Sabha are due within the subsequent three to 4 months and indications out there level to the return of the current authorities. The inventory markets imagine that the federal government of the day can be voted again to energy.

This is able to indicate stability and continuation of infrastructure led development and improvement, which is the necessity of the hour.

Whereas this might result in markets gaining within the rapid quick time period, we have to issue within the present valuations that are not low-cost and the truth that markets haven’t solely gained considerably, however risen throughout the board.

Within the quick to medium time period main into the markets, issues look constructive. Publish elections the inevitable correction of a bigger magnitude is imminent. This is able to be if the federal government of the day wins or loses. If it wins, euphoria adopted by correction and if it loses, disappointment, therefore sharp fall.

The market has given three to 4 months with clear route prematurely to plan your technique. If one fails to reap the benefits of the identical, there isn’t a one however oneself left responsible.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founding father of Kejriwal Analysis and Funding Providers. The views expressed are private)