The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Delhi around June 30, three days later than its usual arrival date, a private forecaster said on Sunday, although the India Meteorological Department has not made a formal announcement.
Monsoon clouds arrived in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar on Sunday, the weather bureau said. Conditions are favourable for it to cover more parts of the country in the next 2-3 days, the Met office predicted.
“We are expecting 2-3 days delay in the arrival of monsoon over Delhi,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster. The usual onset date is June 27.
The left arm of the monsoon is advancing normally but the right arm is marginally slow, indicating delayed arrival of around 4-5 days in some states, the Met office said.
“We do not have information about Delhi onset as yet,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the national weather forecasting centre of the IMD. However, pre-monsoon rains will continue over Delhi and neighbouring areas till June 22 and then hot and dry winds will blow from the west, leading to a rise in temperatures, he said.
Thunderstorms and isolated heavy showers are likely throughout north, central and east India in the next 2-3 days, the Met office has warned. The bureau’s extended range forecast shows moderate rainfall over Delhi and neighbouring areas between June 24 and 30. “From June 22, westerly dry winds will blow. Heatwave conditions are unlikely, but it will be considerably warmer,” said Skymet’s Palawat. “Then we have to wait for monsoon winds to establish, which may be likely around June 30.”
“As per IMD’s forecasts, there is a good chance of monsoon winds strengthening over northern plains during the next 2-3 days,” said M Rajeevan, meteorologist and former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. “A weather system is also predicted with northwest movement. With all these factors, there is a chance of monsoon arrival over Delhi around June 29-30. This is an early indication. We need to verify with IMD’s forecasts.” Rainfall over Delhi is still deficient by 59%, but showers in the past four days have improved the situation since June 15, when the deficiency was 92%. Rain deficiency in northwest India has also reduced from 77% on June 15 to 33% on Sunday.
Overall, there is a 8% deficiency in monsoon rainfall over the country, with 33% deficiency over northwest India, 48% deficiency over central India, 22% deficiency over south peninsula, and 48% excess over east and northeast India. Several parts of northwest India recorded below normal maximum temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, Delhi’s maximum temperature was 30.7 degrees Celsius at Safdarjung, the base weather station. Delhi and other parts of northwest India saw prolonged heatwave spells this summer, which started around mid-March and continued till mid-June.